The Center For Global Development have published research on predicting the rollout timelines of a COVID-19 vaccine. The predictions show a 50% chance of a vaccine by April 2021, rising to 100% by September 2023. The paper also estimates that a total of just under 24 billion doses will be needed globally, distributed between health workers (115m), 65+ people(1.6bn), at risk people (4.2bn), and the rest of the population (18bn).
